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論文摘要翻譯(中翻英)(E)IT資訊類
摘要
2010年隨著蘋果(Apple)iPad的暢銷，帶動整個平板電腦(Tablet PC)的興起。2010年平板電腦總銷售量為1,882萬台，預估2012全年平板電腦出貨量可突破一億台大關。這個數字相當於整體筆記型電腦(Notebook)近三成的市場出貨量，面對平板的這波攻勢，同樣是可攜式的筆記型電腦將首當其衝。業者紛紛提高警覺，深怕平板電腦的暢銷將吞食整個NB市場，已著手調整產品策略來鞏固版圖。
「創新」的確可帶來消費的風潮，只要市場消費者接受平板電腦，整個平板市場便可以拓展開來。本研究將利用Bass的基本擴散模型探討創新產品─平板電腦是如何進行創新擴散，並利用模型進行銷售預測分析。另一方面，平板電腦進入市場後難免與筆記型電腦正面交鋒，短期看來平板電腦吸引嘗鮮者採用已席捲整個電腦市場，因此本研究也將探討平板電腦與筆記型電腦間銷售的消長取代現象，分析在未來幾年平板電腦是否有機會超越筆記型電腦的地位，成為下一個電腦世代的主流。
本研究經模型的實證，發現平板電腦與NB兩產品的擴散狀態是口碑行銷的影響較大，且分析產品的關鍵多數(Critical mass)後，平板電腦比NB較早達到關鍵多數，也就表示採用人數擴張的速度也比NB來的快。另外，從2010平板電腦的加入，NB的銷售量就開始受到牽動。觀看2010~2011近兩年NB的銷售量都未有突破性的成長，呈現上下波動的走勢，產品市場的重疊已開始蠶食 NB出貨量，顯然市場已開始出現排擠效應。
關鍵字：平板電腦(Tablet PC)、擴散模型(Diffusion Model)
Abstract
Driven by the growing popularity of Apple iPad, Tablet PC industry grew tremendously in 2010. 18.82 million Tablet PCs were sold in 2010. More than 100 million Tablet PCs are expected to be sold in 2012, equaling to 30% of NB to be sold in the same year. For NB industry, the growing popularity of tablet PC is definitely a threat. NB manufacturers are therefore forced to adjust their product strategies in order to maintain their market share.
There is no doubt that innovation stimulates consumption. As long as consumers accept Table PC, the market will definitely grow. Therefore, this study attempted to identify the innovation and diffusion of Tablet PC using Bass Diffusion Model to forecast and analyze the sales. At the time that Tablet PC and NB are rivaling in the market, Tablet PC is expected to remain popular in the short-term and will dominate the computer market as time passes by. Therefore, this study focused on the substitutability between Tablet PC and NB in order to find out if Tablet PC has any chance to replace NB in the future and becomes the dominant computer in the next generation.
Based on the evidence obtained from empirical research, this study found that word-of-mouth influenced the diffusion of Tablet PC and NB. Secondly, this study concluded that Tablet PC met the criteria of critical mass earlier than NB. In other words, the number of tablet PC users grows faster than that of NB users. Thirdly, NB sales began to change after Tablet PC was introduced to the market in 2010. NB sales rose and fell in 2010~2011 with no sign of steady growth at all. As a result, NB sales started to decrease. In other words, the crowding-out effect has emerged during the rivalry between Tablet PC and NB.
Key words: Tablet PC, diffusion model
